I don’t mind a good conspiracy theory. The sad thing is that with all the crap we get fed by our media outlets, there is probably more accuracy in some theories than the official reporting we are given.
The downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur appears on the surface, at least by virtue of western reporting, to be a case of dumb arse pro-Russian separatist militia in the Ukraine using sophisticated military equipment in error on a civilian target.
It may turn out that this is exactly what happened. Without the benefit of all the facts, I am not personally able to say one way or the other. Neither are you, the reader. However, one thing we should all do is look at any significant events with possible political outcomes and be suspicious enough to not blindly jump on the media bandwagon.
I have intentionally left out sourcing in this article. Go ahead and google for yourself. I’m not prepared to apply any credibility to any source out there, merely bring together a couple of ideas, some established facts and some of my own observations. It is up to you to form your own opinion, do your own research and see what adds up for you. Ultimately, I have reservations that the results of any official investigation will actually resemble reality, so believe what you will.
Flight MH17 departed Amsterdam Airport Schiphol at 10:14UTC, 14 minutes behind schedule. It disappeared off radar at 13:15UTC. There were 298 people on board the aircraft, it was last detected flying at 33,000 feet, as ordered by Ukraine air traffic control. It had originally filed a plan to fly at 35,000 feet. The minimum advised height in Ukraine Airspace at the time was 32,000 feet.
Ukraine air traffic control have as yet not released radar data and there are suggestions from unidentified sources who apparently were in the Kiev control centre at the time that it is unlikely the data will ever be released. It has been alleged that until three minutes prior to the shoot down there were two Ukrainian Airforce jets flying in close formation with the airliner. These sources claim the aircraft was shot down by an air-to-air missile fired from one of these aircraft.
The US is claiming they have satellite imagery showing a ground based missile launch. Frankly, anyone who believes anything the Americans say without independent verification is a tool.
The Russians claim none of their launcher crews are in Ukraine. Well, they would say that, they aren’t supposed to have any of their personnel there period.
So far very little has surfaced showing the plane come down. The best footage to date is of a fireball at the point of impact. But this does tell us more than you may give credit at first consideration. For example we know there was no fire prior to impact on account of there being no smoke trail. This means the engines were not burning and that the fuel tanks were not ruptured. This helps us confirm that if a missile is the cause, it was a radar guided, not thermal guided device as it did not target the engines.
We also know the rear of the plane was separated most likely at the time of the explosion. It fell some distance from the main body of the wreckage, and bodies, luggage and other debris was scattered between the two main sections of the aircraft.
Bodies which came down with the tail appear to be riddled with injuries consistent with fast moving projectiles. It is important to note that missiles are designed for proximal detonation, not contact detonation. This is so the missile is more effective across a range of scenarios. Relying on contact reduces the likelihood of taking down an aircraft fired from in front of it as the chance of striking the plane is very low, especially against supersonic targets. Instead the missile detonates when within a lethal range, launching a cone of projectiles with a destructive shock wave. Excellent video can be located demonstrating how this works. Needless to say, given the plane does not appear to have been on fire before the ground strike, it seems likely detonation occurred near the rear of the plane. At 63m in length, it is highly probably that any detonation capable of taking a section of the plane off would have been close enough to disable everyone on board with the concussion. It is noteworthy that no distressed call was made, and only the black box recording will tell us if the flight crew made any attempt to control the aircraft after it was hit.
Interestingly, a BUK missile, the type alleged by Ukraine as having brought down MH17, relies on the command post to direct it to target. I am not an expert on how the missile is designed to close on its target, but given it is intended for use against everything from fighter jets to cruise missiles and smart bombs, I would have guessed the missile would be far more accurate than to hit the tail of a large commercial aircraft flying at subsonic speed. Firing from in front of the aircraft, as alleged by Ukraine, and striking the aircraft many kilometres in front of the launcher, I can’t help but wonder why the rear of the plane was hit. It makes me consider the possibility that the allegations of an air-to-air shoot down, with the missile arriving from the rear, has at least a little plausibility. Likewise would a BUK launch from behind the aircraft, coming from inside Ukraine government controlled territory.
Anyone capable of operating one of these systems would be able to use the basic telemetry provided by the computers to identify the target. The system is designed to look for characteristic patterns in the radar signal to determine the shape and probable type of aircraft. Further, the system is scanning for identifying squawking from the target. In this case MH17 would have been identifying itself as a commercial aircraft. The flight would have appeared on the operator’s screen as such.
So what motivation would Ukraine have had for shooting down a commercial aircraft?
Up to this point Ukraine has had very limited support from the West in fighting separatists. They have lost Crimea and currently do not have control of much of the East of the country. Rhetoric is not going to defeat the separatists, sanctions on the Russian leadership are not going to defeat the separatists. Ukraine needs the west to step up and fight its war for it.
I’m not going to ask you to believe that the downing of MH17 is a conspiracy to bring the West into direct conflict with Russia, whether that conflict be military or political. What I ask you to consider, before adding your voice to the choir of condemnation against Russia for its support of the rebels, is that maybe there is more to this than what initially meets the eye. We have seen on numerous occasions that the governments of the West have fooled their populations. Perhaps that isn’t the case here, but perhaps it is.
Think before you let yourself be caught up in the hysteria.